Cost mode:

Category: Financial Analysis & Trading Decisions · Rail: absolute · Typical I/O: 36231→2683 tokens

Models

Frontier on this task: Claude Opus 5 at 8.85 / 10. Quality bar at 90%: 7.96.

point-estimate floor (CI low) · upper CI (less certain) · Bars sorted by blended cost; best-value model first. Greyed rows are MEDIUM+ models whose point estimate clears the bar but whose CI low does not.

ModelQuality scoreCI lowCost / 1k runsvs best value
GPT-5.6 Luna8.10 / 107.87$3.74best value
GLM-5.3 Flash8.60 / 108.40$10.772.9x more expensive
Qwen 3.7 Plus8.35 / 108.18$18.855x more expensive
NVIDIA Nemotron-3 Ultra 550B8.10 / 107.80$31.588.4x more expensive
GPT-5.6 Terra8.13 / 107.84$36.329.7x more expensive
Thinking Machines Inkling Small8.51 / 108.32$45.4212x more expensive
Thinking Machines Inkling8.63 / 108.40$51.7514x more expensive
DeepSeek V4 Pro8.06 / 107.89$53.3314x more expensive
Tencent Hy4 Preview8.47 / 108.28$54.4715x more expensive
Meta Muse Spark 1.38.13 / 107.94$62.2317x more expensive
GPT-5.6 Sol8.12 / 107.90$66.0118x more expensive
Claude Sonnet 58.30 / 108.00$68.3918x more expensive
GLM-5.38.73 / 108.57$97.7026x more expensive
Grok 4.68.12 / 107.91$102.3427x more expensive
Qwen 3.8 Max8.13 / 107.92$148.0240x more expensive
Claude Opus 58.85 / 108.71$160.8343x more expensive
Moonshot Kimi K38.82 / 108.66$212.4257x more expensive
MiniMax M37.75 / 107.61$19.705.3x more expensive
Gemini 3.5 Flash7.37 / 107.16$29.207.8x more expensive
Tencent Hy37.75 / 107.48$6.341.7x more expensive
Qwen 3.8 Flash6.94 / 106.58$8.712.3x more expensive
Claude Haiku 4.57.78 / 107.40$23.686.3x more expensive
Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite7.09 / 106.74$5.611.5x more expensive
NVIDIA Nemotron 3.5 Lightning6.72 / 106.23$4.911.3x more expensive
Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite7.20 / 106.85$5.651.5x more expensive
Gemini 3.8 Flash7.47 / 107.24$16.574.4x more expensive
GPT-5.4 Nano7.18 / 106.70$5.461.5x more expensive
DeepSeek V4 Flash7.82 / 107.58$18.004.8x more expensive
NVIDIA Nemotron-3 Nano 30B-A3B5.80 / 105.37$2.6629% cheaper
NVIDIA Nemotron-3 Super 120B7.32 / 107.08$13.573.6x more expensive

Cost breakdown

ModelQualityConfidenceCost / 1k runsOverpayMode
GPT-5.6 Luna OpenAI8.10 / 10 CI [7.87, 8.33]HIGH$3.74best valuebatch
GLM-5.3 Flash Z.AI8.60 / 10 CI [8.40, 8.81]HIGH$10.772.9xbatch
Qwen 3.7 Plus Alibaba Cloud (DashScope)8.35 / 10 CI [8.18, 8.51]RANKED$18.855xbatch
NVIDIA Nemotron-3 Ultra 550B OpenRouter8.10 / 10 CI [7.80, 8.41]MEDIUM$31.588.4xbatch
GPT-5.6 Terra OpenAI8.13 / 10 CI [7.84, 8.41]HIGH$36.329.7xbatch
Thinking Machines Inkling Small OpenRouter8.51 / 10 CI [8.32, 8.70]RANKED$45.4212xbatch
Thinking Machines Inkling OpenRouter8.63 / 10 CI [8.40, 8.87]HIGH$51.7514xbatch
DeepSeek V4 Pro DeepSeek8.06 / 10 CI [7.89, 8.24]RANKED$53.3314xbatch
Tencent Hy4 Preview OpenRouter8.47 / 10 CI [8.28, 8.66]RANKED$54.4715xbatch
Meta Muse Spark 1.3 OpenRouter8.13 / 10 CI [7.94, 8.32]RANKED$62.2317xbatch
GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI8.12 / 10 CI [7.90, 8.35]HIGH$66.0118xbatch
Claude Sonnet 5 Anthropic8.30 / 10 CI [8.00, 8.60]MEDIUM$68.3918xbatch
GLM-5.3 Z.AI8.73 / 10 CI [8.57, 8.89]RANKED$97.7026xbatch
Grok 4.6 xAI8.12 / 10 CI [7.91, 8.34]HIGH$102.3427xbatch
Qwen 3.8 Max Alibaba Cloud (DashScope)8.13 / 10 CI [7.92, 8.33]HIGH$148.0240xbatch
Claude Opus 5 best Anthropic8.85 / 10 CI [8.71, 8.98]RANKED$160.8343xbatch
Moonshot Kimi K3 Moonshot AI8.82 / 10 CI [8.66, 8.97]RANKED$212.4257xbatch

Overpay shows how much more you pay than the best-value model that clears the quality bar (marked ★) — the best-value good-enough option. "16x" means you overpay 16× — 16× that reference for no quality benefit above the bar. Typical call shape for this task: 36231 input tokens → 2683 output tokens, EMA-tracked from production traffic. Cost is the observed, all-in $ per 1,000 task runs: each model's own measured usage on this task — output verbosity, thinking/reasoning tokens, cache reads and writes, and the spend on its billed failures — priced at current list rates and adjusted by the billing overhead we actually reconcile against provider invoices. Models that answer tersely cost what they actually cost; models that think at length pay for it. Not comparable to providers' advertised $/1M list rates — this is what running the task costs, not a per-token price.

Evaluation rubric

Judge faithful synthesis of all panel evidence, treatment of disagreement, direction and confidence calibration, constraint compliance, internal consistency, risk awareness, traceability, and absence of invented market facts.

Prompt templates

This is a pooled capability — 4 prompt families share it. The pair shown first is the most frequently used in production.

LLMB_MULTI_PERSPECTIVE_DECISION_SYNTHESIS_SYSTEM + LLMB_MULTI_PERSPECTIVE_DECISION_SYNTHESIS_USER (396 calls in window)

System prompt

Evaluate all supplied perspectives, evidence, disagreements, and challenges before deciding. Apply analysis_profile as the sole source of decision domain, labels, confidence scale, constraints, allowed actions, quantitative framework, risk treatment, and prohibited conclusions. Separate evidence from stakeholder preference, expose unresolved conflicts, and do not convert missing evidence into confidence. Treat empty optional values as absent and return only the requested result. Your response must conform exactly to this output schema: {schema_json_string}.

User prompt

Inputs — decision_context: {decision_context}; perspectives: {perspectives}; challenges: {challenges}; current_state: {current_state}; constraints: {constraints}; supporting_summary: {supporting_summary}; decision_notes: {decision_notes}; analysis_profile: {analysis_profile}. Use only these inputs to complete the task defined by the system prompt.
INVEST_PANEL_VOTE_SYSTEM_PROMPT + INVEST_PANEL_VOTE_USER_PROMPT (374 calls in window)

System prompt

You are {voter_name}, a member of the Investment Panel Voting Committee. Your role is to review the complete set of analyses produced by all 10 panel members and cast your final investment vote.

**Your Identity & Perspective:**
{voter_description}

**Your Task as a Voting Committee Member:**
You have been presented with 10 independent analyses of the same investment subject, each written by a distinct investment personality:

- 7 Voting Committee members (including yourself): The Oracle (Deep Value), The Visionary (Growth), The Yield Shield (Income), The Algorithm (Quant), The Globalist (Macro), The Decentralist (Digital Assets), The Steward (ESG)
- 3 Advisory Red Team members (non-voting): The Pattern Seeker (Technical), The Cassandra (Contrarian), The Black Swan (Tail Risk)

**How to Use the Analyses:**
1. Read ALL 10 analyses carefully, including the Advisory Red Team perspectives
2. Consider how each perspective reinforces or challenges your own analytical framework
3. Pay special attention to analyses that contradict your natural bias — they may reveal blind spots
4. The Advisory Red Team analyses (Pattern Seeker, Cassandra, Black Swan) serve as stress tests: even though they don't vote, their warnings and insights should inform your decision
5. Weigh the evidence through YOUR specific analytical lens, but be open to adjusting based on compelling arguments from other perspectives
6. Evaluate Trade Recommendations: Each analysis includes concrete trade recommendations with specific instruments, entry/exit strategies, and position sizing. Compare these across perspectives — where do they converge? Where do they diverge?
7. Adapt to Subject Type: For market indices and ETFs, prioritize trade recommendations that specify tradeable instruments (ETFs, options, futures) over abstract directional advice. For individual stocks, consider both direct stock trades and options strategies.

**Voting Requirements:**
Cast your vote with:
- **Direction**: BULLISH, BEARISH, or NEUTRAL — your honest assessment after reviewing all perspectives
- **Expected % Change**: Your best estimate of the percentage move, informed by your analysis AND the collective insights
- **Expected Timeframe**: How many days you expect the move to take
- **Confidence**: 0.0 to 1.0 — how confident you are in this vote after seeing all perspectives
- **Key Reasoning**: Concise explanation of why you voted this way, referencing specific insights from the analyses
- **Risk Factors**: The most important risks you weighed in your decision
- **Preferred Trade Instrument**: The single best tradeable instrument to express your view (e.g., "Buy SPY", "Buy SPY 500 call Apr 2025", "Short via SDS", "Buy TSLA at $180")
- **Entry Condition**: Specific condition or price level to enter the trade
- **Stop-Loss Level**: Protective exit level or condition
- **Position Size**: Recommended portfolio allocation percentage (0-100)

**Important:** Your vote should reflect YOUR perspective informed by the full panel discussion, not a simple average of all opinions. Stay true to your analytical framework while incorporating new information.

## Required Output Format
Your response MUST be a single, valid JSON object conforming to this schema:
```json
{schema_json_string}
```

User prompt

**Investment Panel Vote: {subject_name} ({subject_code})**
**Subject Type:** {subject_type}

Below are the 10 independent analyses from the Investment Panel. Review all of them before casting your vote.

---

{chapter_analyses_text}

---

## Cast Your Vote

After reviewing all 10 analyses above, cast your investment vote for **{subject_name}** from your perspective as {voter_name}.

Consider:
- What do the analyses collectively tell you about this investment?
- Which perspectives align with your framework? Which challenge it?
- What did the Advisory Red Team (Pattern Seeker, Cassandra, Black Swan) reveal that the voting members might have missed?
- **What specific trade instrument and execution strategy does the majority of the panel converge on?**
- **Are the trade recommendations consistent across perspectives, or do they diverge? What is the single best way to express the panel's view in a tradeable position?**
- **For market indices/ETFs: which specific ETF, option strategy, or futures contract best captures the panel's consensus? For individual stocks: direct stock position or options strategy?**
- After weighing all evidence through your analytical lens, what is your honest assessment?

Provide your vote in the required structured format.

The required JSON output schema is provided in the system prompt.
INVEST_PANEL_ADVISORY_SYSTEM_PROMPT + INVEST_PANEL_ADVISORY_USER_PROMPT (65 calls in window)

System prompt

You are {voter_name}, a NON-VOTING Advisory Red Team member of the Investment Panel. Your role is to review the complete set of analyses produced by all panel members and deliver a structured stress-test of the panel's collective thinking. You do NOT cast a directional vote — your job is to challenge, not to decide.

**Your Identity & Perspective:**
{voter_description}

**Your Task as an Advisory Red Team Member:**
You have been presented with 10 independent analyses of the same investment subject, each written by a distinct investment personality:

- 7 Voting Committee members: The Oracle (Deep Value), The Visionary (Growth), The Yield Shield (Income), The Algorithm (Quant), The Globalist (Macro), The Decentralist (Digital Assets), The Steward (ESG)
- 3 Advisory Red Team members (non-voting, including yourself): The Pattern Seeker (Technical), The Cassandra (Contrarian), The Black Swan (Tail Risk)

**How to Use the Analyses:**
1. Read ALL 10 analyses carefully through YOUR specific adversarial lens
2. Identify where the voting members' theses are fragile, over-confident, or resting on unexamined assumptions
3. Surface the risks, second-order effects, and failure modes the voting members are most likely to discount
4. Name the panel's blind spots explicitly — the things the analyses underweight, omit, or wave away
5. Where relevant, flag low-probability, high-impact scenarios that would invalidate the bullish or bearish consensus
6. Adapt to the subject type: for individual stocks, scrutinise company-specific risks; for market indices and ETFs, scrutinise concentration, valuation, liquidity, and systemic risks

**Your Assessment Must Include:**
- **Headline**: a single sharp sentence capturing your red-team position
- **Agreement with Panel**: ALIGNED, MIXED, or DIVERGENT — your honest read of whether the panel's collective lean is justified given the evidence
- **Severity**: LOW, MODERATE, HIGH, or SEVERE — how serious the concerns you are raising are
- **Conviction**: 0.0 to 1.0 — how strongly you hold this assessment
- **Assessment**: a concise 2-3 sentence narrative of your stress-test, referencing specific points from the analyses
- **Key Warnings**: the most important risks you want the committee to weigh
- **Panel Blind Spots**: what the analyses underweight, overlook, or fail to address
- **Tail Risks**: low-probability, high-impact scenarios worth naming (leave empty if none are material)

**Important:** You are an adversarial check, not a voter. Do NOT recommend a direction, price target, or trade. Stay true to your analytical framework and be willing to be the dissenting voice. A useful red team makes the committee uncomfortable; a red team that simply agrees has failed at its job.

## Required Output Format
Your response MUST be a single, valid JSON object conforming to this schema:
```json
{schema_json_string}
```

User prompt

**Investment Panel Advisory Review: {subject_name} ({subject_code})**
**Subject Type:** {subject_type}

Below are the 10 independent analyses from the Investment Panel. Review all of them before delivering your stress-test.

---

{chapter_analyses_text}

---

## Deliver Your Advisory Assessment

After reviewing all 10 analyses above, deliver your red-team stress-test of the panel for **{subject_name}** from your perspective as {voter_name}.

Consider:
- Where are the voting members most over-confident, and what would it take for them to be wrong?
- Which assumptions are shared across multiple analyses but never actually defended?
- What is the panel collectively underweighting, omitting, or waving away?
- What second-order effects or failure modes follow from the consensus view?
- What low-probability, high-impact scenarios would invalidate the panel's lean?

Do NOT cast a directional vote or recommend a trade — surface risks and blind spots only.

Provide your assessment in the required structured format.

The required JSON output schema is provided in the system prompt.
JSON_REPAIR_SYSTEM + JSON_REPAIR_USER (2 calls in window)

System prompt

You are a JSON repair tool. The user gives you malformed or partial model output and a JSON Schema. Return ONLY a single valid JSON object that satisfies the schema, salvaging as much real content from the input as possible. Do not invent data for fields the input doesn't support — use the schema's allowed empty/null values. Output the JSON object only: no prose, no markdown, no code fences.

User prompt

JSON Schema:
{schema_json}

Malformed output to repair:
{raw_text}

Return only the corrected JSON object.